By Election : With Malays split, the Chinese are key to victory in Permatang Pasir vote

Umno’s headache is compounded by the fact that Mohd Hamdan won by a huge majority of 5,433 votes, quite a feat for a small state constituency.

The reason for the majority is the strong support he got from the Malays, who form 72 per cent of the electorate of about 20,000 and also the Chinese who make up about 25 per cent of the voters.

If as seen in the recently concluded Manek Urai by-election that Malay votes are almost evenly split between Umno and PAS, then the Chinese voters hold the balance and are the kingmakers.

Chinese voter mood is currently ugly towards Umno and this is not just over the death under interrogation of DAP political aide Teoh Beng Hock but also because of the loss of Perak and over all the nasty things that Umno-owned newspaper Utusan Malaysia has been writing about non-Malays, particularly the Chinese.

In elections, a lot has to do with perception and Chinese perception of the newly-installed Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was changing for the positive before the Teoh affair broke into the public domain.

Even though the issue caught Najib and his administration off-guard, he has done the right thing by ordering an inquest, meeting the grieving family and expanding the royal commission's reference from investigating the MACC procedures and investigation method to including the cause and manner of death.

The inquest is on-going and what it throws up is likely to colour the perception of the voters of Permatang Pasir, especially the crucial Chinese voters.

Not only is the MACC under the spotlight but also the DAP and the ways and manners of some of its leaders. Would its squeaky clean image hold up under the spotlight?

If Manek Urai is any indicator, PAS is beginning to lose its grip on the rural Malay voters and if this is reflected again in Permatang Pasir, then victory depends very much on strong Chinese voter support for PAS.

They have backed PAS in all of the recent seven by-elections and there is no reason why they would not do it again in Permatang Pasir.

PAS would have difficulty swallowing the victory if this is the case — winning on Chinese votes but losing some of its traditional Malay Muslim voters to Umno.

Such a victory would be a first for a Muslim party and gives rise to a unique situation in politics.

In 2004, a very good year for Umno, it still lost Permatang Pasir by 679 votes but in the 2008 tsunami the margin of defeat widened to 5,433, indicating Malays and Chinese voters backing PAS together.

But a year and half on, public perception is changing with a new national leader in charge and a new agenda taking shape under the 1 Malaysia concept.

Although heavily criticised by the opposition, the 1 Malaysia concept is a necessary part of politics. Sloganeering is part and parcel of public life and political manipulation.

But what is important is whether there is a determination to lead and a direction behind the slogans.

Are the slogans just that, nice words put together, or is there a firm guiding hand behind the words?

One indicator of the changing confidence level in the Najib administration is the huge lines forming outside PNB offices to grab the various Amanah Saham share issues.

While Malays and Indians struggle to subscribe their allotments, the Chinese have grabbed their share often before the end of the opening day, indicating that whatever their political preferences, they have confidence in the economic management of the country.

By-elections therefore are a good indicator of the current public mood. Recent opinion polls showed Najib enjoying upbeat ratings compared to when he took over on April 3.

Have his ratings taken a beating over the Teoh Beng Hock affair? Is the beginning of Malay disenchantment with PAS a passing fad or has it taken root?

How would the Chinese voters act this time — stay with PAS or begin to lean to BN with the economic situation turning upbeat.

The voting pattern and outcome of the Permatang Pasir by-election may well be a bellwether of emerging trends in public perception and its impact on political behaviour.

This is especially so because the Permatang Pasir voter profile matches that of the national population profile in many mixed areas of the country.